Monday, January 26, 2015

Prop Bets for the 2015 Big Game

This year, I will be in Vegas for the Big Game of the NFL.  Therefore, I intend to make the game a little more interesting by taking advantage of some of the many prop bet opportunities at the sports books.  I was able to print a list off for the sports book at the Westgate, as that's where I'll be watching the Big Game, from the Casa Di Amore.  I've decided to list a few of the bets that I'm considering.  I initially marked over 100 bets that I wanted to consider, out of over 350 potential prop bets.  When looking, I tried to consider some of the stat props that had decent odds.  These included touchbacks by the kickers on kickoffs, yardage on the first carry of the game, overall yardage on touchdowns, etc. I stayed away from the cross-sport props, as those were of little interest to me.  I fully expect to lose money overall on my prop bets, but I want to make educated bets where possible and have some winners to cash in!  I already have money coming back regardless of which team wins the Super Bowl, due to futures bets made during the season.  New England returns exactly what I've wagered overall so far, while Seattle would return a small profit.  I will likely bet more on the actual game, as well as the over/under, once I've put a little more thought into it.

Note:  Please do not bet any of these based on what you read.  I hold no responsibility if you should do so, and do not endorse actually placing any of these wagers.

Some of the props I'm looking at initially, and why, along with odds at the time of printing the list, include:

Coin toss:  Heads (-102) --No logical reason other than I like heads.  Also, I've heard rumors of coins that are heavier on the heads side in the past, and figure I'll go with it just in case.

Will either team score 3 straight times?: No (+160)  Seattle's offense isn't really good enough to score 3 straight times, and New England likely won't score 3 straight times due to the defense of Seattle, so I feel this is a decent value.

Will both teams make 33 yard or longer field goals? Yes (+140)  Both offenses are very likely to stall, given Seattle's lack of solid receivers and New England going against the stout Seattle D.  Good value here, as points should be a priority over going for a 4th down conversion.

Will first kickoff by Steven Haushka (SEA) result in a touchback? Yes (-165)  Going with the odds here, as he had touchbacks on roughly 52% of his kickoffs in the regular season.

Total Field Goals made by both teams: Over 3.5 (+120) For reasons stated above, I believe there will be multiple field goals by both teams.

Will there be a special teams or defensive touchdown? Yes (+155)  With the Seattle D, this wager has good value.

Will there be a 2-pt conversion? Yes (+375)  Either team is capable of converting if they need to, and that's a price that's too good to pass up.

Total number of different players to have a passing attempt? Over 2.5 +280 All it takes is one trick play, or one injury to make this one happen.

Total completions by Brady: Over 23.5 (-110) I think brady has a big game against the injured Seattle secondary.

Total pass attempts by Tom Brady: Over 36.5  (-110)  See above.

Total TD passes by Brady: Over 2.5 (+190) Seeabove.

Will Lagarrette Blount score a TD? Yes +140  I realize Seattle has yet to allow a rushing td in the post season, but the Patriots have so many weapons that I'd be shocked if they don't get Garrette into the end zone at some point.

Total receiving yards by Julian Edelman? Over 65.5 (-110) Seattle's injured secondary and Brady's big day lead to enough yards for Edelman to hit the over here.

Total receptions by Edelman: Over 6.5 Even  See above

Total points score by Gostkowski: Over 7.5  (-140)  2 PAT's and 2 FG's are enough to get this done, and both are very reasonable.

Total points by the Patriots:  Over 24 (-110) I think the Patriots get this and a few more, upper 20's to lower 30's total scored for them IMO.

Total QB sacks by Patriots D:  Under 2.5 (-130)  Patriots have no sacks in the post season and Wilson is one of the harder Qb's to sack, making this prop a likely win.

Total Net Punting yards by both teams: under 669.5 (-110)  I see this game with a lot of sustained drives, both teams getting into scoring range with field goals and td's....maybe 8-10 punts but that's not enough for that many net punting yards.

Total rushing yards for Marshawn Lynch: Over 82.5 (-110)  Lynch has a big day, even with the Pat's D focusing on him.  Seattle's passing game isn't enough to win the game for them, and Lynch needs to have a big day for them to have any shot at winning.

Total rushing yards by Robert Turbin: Over 13.5 (-110)  He's been getting enough carries that he should be around 20 yards, enough to easily cover the over in this prop.

Total points by Haushka: Over 7.5 (-125) I think Seattle drives but stalls enough for 3 FG's

More TD passes:  Brady -.5 vs Wilson  (-110)  Brady is a better QB with more weapons, and Seattle is more of a rushing team.  I like the possibility here.

Jersey number of player to score the first TD in the game:  Under 29.5 +110  If it's Seattle, Lynch and Wilson both have low numbers, and a few Pats do as well....this could go either way but it's more of a gamble and less calculated risk.

Player to score 1st TD of the game:  There are a few wagers here.  Wagers and odds are:
Gronkowski 7/1
Blount 7/1
Edelman 12/1
Lynch 6/1
Kearse 12/1
Wilson 12/1
Field 6/1

Player to score first Patriots TD:
Gronkowski: 7/2
Blount: 7/2
Edelman 6/1
Amendola 9/1

First Seahawks TD:
Lynch 3/1
Kearse 6/1
Wilson 8/1

Total points scored in the game:

31-35 10/1
46-50 4/1
51-55 6/1
56-60 6/1
61-65 8/1

TD passes by Brady:
3 4/1
4 8/1
5 15/1

Passing yards for Brady:
261-280 6/1
281-300 6/1
301-320 6/1
321-340 9/1
341-360 15/1

Edelman total receiving yards:
51-60 6/1
61-70 6/1
71-80 7/1
81-90 12/1
91-100 15/1
101-110 18/1

Total rushing yards by Lynch:
81-90 7/1
91-100 7/1
101-110 8/1
111-120 8/1
121-130 10/1
131-140 15/1

Total rushing yards by Seattle:
121-130 8/1
131-140 8/1
141-150 8/1
151-160 8/1
161-170 8/1
171-190 10/1
191-210 12/1
211-230 15/1

There will likely be a few others, but these are the majority of them.
Again, there are many prop bets I'm looking at overall, and this is just a small look into my thoughts on them.  Feel free to comment with your own potential prop bets or thoughts on mine, including telling me what an idiot I am if you're so inclined....  :-)

13 comments:

  1. so far i am betting over 5.5 TDs in the game on nitrogensports. with more 2 come!!!!!!! LOL also funny that and i quote "i like heads" LOL u see

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    1. LOL, yeah I see....I guess I should have specified when it comes to a coin toss, I like heads.

      Over 5.5 TD's total isn't bad. Might have to consider that one.

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  2. Over/Under on how many times they check Brady's balls for proper inflation: 25. Take the over.

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    1. Are you intending to check his balls personally in order to guarantee they reach that number Rob?

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    2. From 300 miles away? I don't think so. I hear they are going to randomly draw female fans from the crowd to do it every few snaps. Sounds like a nice promo for the ladies.

      But you remind me that I plan to do a Super Bowl Day post that includes a story about Tom Brady's genitalia.

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    3. I'm going to leave anything and everything that deals with the genitalia of Tom Brady to you Rob....

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  3. I should look online to see what the prop bets are. I'm not 100% sure if I'll get out to watch the game but if i dont then i should at least get out to make a few bets.

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    1. Understandable. I will be out playing poker Friday, Saturday, and Sunday nights most likely if you can get away. If not, I guess you get a pass this time...lol

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  4. I definitely won't go into this much detail describing any prop bets that I decide to list in my blog - good job! :)

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    1. Thanks! I'm glad you enjoyed it....now if the players will just cooperate on Sunday....lol

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  5. Ummm ... do the Bears play this Sunday? Just wondering since there is now new enthusiasm for the team.

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    1. Yes, I believe the Bears will be playing Sunday. They will be playing the game of golf, like 29 other teams. :-)

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  6. also i took Pats to win and Gronk to score a TD at+250

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